Arkansas · Federal data hub

Hot Springs, AR

0.100M people1 counties#5 of 8 in Arkansas$55,409 median HHIUpdated April 10, 2026

Investor first look

The numbers that matter most

What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.

moderate

Price to income

3.18×

The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.

vs Arkansas: 3.18×=
vs U.S.: 3.43×-0.25

Benchmark

3.18×

▼

affordable

moderate

expensive

0×–3×

3×–5×

5×–7×

ACS median home value ÷ median HHI

comfortable

Rent to income

23.6%

What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.

vs Arkansas: 21.1%+2.5
vs U.S.: 23.3%+0.3

Benchmark

23.6%

▼

comfortable

moderate

burdened

15%–25%

25%–30%

30%–40%

(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI

deal-by-deal

Cap rate proxy

4.82%

Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.

vs Arkansas: 4.49%+0.33
vs U.S.: 4.35%+0.47

Benchmark

4.82%

▼

tight

deal-by-deal

solid

1%–3%

3%–5%

5%–7%

(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value

steady

Net migration

+0.12%

Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.

vs Arkansas: 0.09%+0.04
vs U.S.: 0.03%+0.10

Benchmark

+0.12%

▼

shrinking

steady

growing

-1%–-0.1%

-0.1%–+0.1%

+0.1%–+1%

IRS net migration ÷ population

normal

Permit pipeline

3.25

permits per 1,000 residents

Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.

vs Arkansas: 3.86-0.61
vs U.S.: 3.52-0.27

Benchmark

3.25

▼

tight

moderate

strong

0–2

2–5

5–10

Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000

softening

Unemployment

4.4%

Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.

vs Arkansas: 3.9%+0.5
vs U.S.: 3.9%+0.5

Benchmark

4.4%

▼

healthy

normal

loose

2%–4%

4%–5.5%

5.5%–8%

BLS LAUS, latest month

Home values

Where prices are and where they've been

5-year price appreciation

+62.4%

homeValues.yearOverYear

+9.2%

Median home value

$176,400

Rents

The rent ladder

Bedroom	Monthly	Annual	% of median HHI
1 BR	$834	$10,008	18.1%
2 BR	$1,090	$13,080	23.6%
3 BR	$1,393	$16,716	30.2%

Jobs & income

Labor market direction

Unemployment

4.4%

Median household income

$55,409

Supply pipeline

What's being built

Total TTM

325

+339.2% YoY

Single-family

2–4 unit

5+ unit

224

Counties

All 1 counties, ranked by population

County	Population	Home value	Median HHI	Permits TTM	YoY
Garland County	100,021	$176,400	$55,409	325	+339.2%

Peer metros

Similar metros nationally

Metro	Pop	Med HHI	P/I	Cap proxy	HPI 5y	Permits/1k	Unemp
★Hot Springs	100,021	$55,409	3.18×	4.82%	+62.4%	3.25	4.4%
Sebring-Avon Park, FL	102,339	$55,581	—	—	+74.3%	—	6.3%
Gadsden, AL	103,348	$53,070	—	—	+59.8%	—	2.4%
Cumberland, MD-WV	95,118	$59,413	—	—	—	—	—
Bay City, MI	103,752	$60,523	—	—	+62.8%	—	5.8%
Parkersburg-Vienna, WV	89,474	$56,029	—	—	+40.2%	—	4.4%

Migration

Where people are moving in from

Net migration

+125

+0.12% of population

Origin county	Tax returns
Saline County, AR	219
Pulaski County, AR	208
Hot Spring County, AR	164
Clark County, AR	58
Montgomery County, AR	50
Pike County, AR	49

Demographic backbone

Who lives in Hot Springs

Median age: 45
Bachelor's+: 26.2%
Owner-occupancy: 69.2%
Vacancy rate: 16.8%
Rent burdened (30%+): 41.0%
Median household income: $55,409

This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.