Fort Smith, AR-OK
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
affordable
Price to income
2.82×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Arkansas
- 3.18×-0.36
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.61
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
19.8%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Arkansas
- 21.1%-1.3
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%-3.5
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.57%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Arkansas
- 4.49%+0.08
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.22
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.01%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Arkansas
- 0.09%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
2.77
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Arkansas
- 3.86
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Arkansas
- 3.9%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+60.8%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+7.8%
Median home value
$160,100
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $714 | $8,568 | 15.1% |
| 2 BR | $937 | $11,244 | 19.8% |
| 3 BR | $1,266 | $15,192 | 26.8% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.4%
Median household income
$56,717
What's being built
Total TTM
680
+15.7% YoY
Single-family
322
2–4 unit
246
5+ unit
112
All 5 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian County | 128,184 | $166,000 | $56,450 | 459 | +24.7% |
| Crawford County | 60,593 | $170,000 | $60,362 | 57 | +21.3% |
| Le Flore County | 48,525 | $121,600 | $50,027 | 54 | |
| Sequoyah County | 39,538 | $127,500 | $49,795 | 96 | -9.4% |
| Franklin County | 17,160 | $118,800 | $51,919 | 14 |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Fort Smith | 245,475 | $56,717 | 2.82× | 4.57% | +60.8% | 2.77 | 4.4% |
| Charleston, WV | 257,927 | $58,089 | — | — | +36.3% | — | 4.4% |
| Macon-Bibb County, GA | 233,334 | $58,127 | — | — | +61.7% | — | 3.9% |
| Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN | 224,515 | $59,895 | — | — | +61.0% | — | 2.3% |
| College Station-Bryan, TX | 269,418 | $59,691 | — | — | +48.3% | — | 3.1% |
| Binghamton, NY | 246,709 | $63,347 | — | — | +56.0% | — | 4.1% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+32
+0.01% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Sebastian County, AR | 1,158 |
| Crawford County, AR | 801 |
| Le Flore County, OK | 318 |
| Sequoyah County, OK | 309 |
| Washington County, AR | 305 |
| Benton County, AR | 173 |
Who lives in Fort Smith
- Median age
- 39
- Bachelor's+
- 21.4%
- Owner-occupancy
- 66.2%
- Vacancy rate
- 10.7%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 39.0%
- Median household income
- $56,717
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.