Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.52×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Arizona
- 4.54×-1.02
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
moderate
Rent to income
25.6%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Arizona
- 27.4%-1.9
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.73%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Arizona
- 3.81%+0.92
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.38
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
steady
Net migration
+0.07%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Arizona
- 0.31%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%+0.04
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
normal
Permit pipeline
3.39
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Arizona
- 5.73
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.9%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Arizona
- 4.9%=
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+56.8%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+4.0%
Median home value
$207,400
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,111 | $13,332 | 22.6% |
| 2 BR | $1,257 | $15,084 | 25.6% |
| 3 BR | $1,748 | $20,976 | 35.6% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.9%
Median household income
$58,970
What's being built
Total TTM
426
+21.0% YoY
Single-family
410
2–4 unit
16
5+ unit
0
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cochise County | 125,504 | $207,400 | $58,970 | 426 | +21.0% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Sierra Vista | 125,504 | $58,970 | 3.52× | 4.73% | +56.8% | 3.39 | 4.9% |
| Lawton, OK | 127,314 | $59,060 | — | — | +34.4% | — | 4.4% |
| Mansfield, OH | 125,008 | $57,649 | — | — | +63.6% | — | 4.8% |
| Altoona, PA | 122,640 | $60,594 | — | — | +42.1% | — | 3.7% |
| Goldsboro, NC | 117,480 | $58,082 | — | — | +64.0% | — | 3.5% |
| Battle Creek, MI | 134,011 | $60,385 | — | — | +58.4% | — | 5.1% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
+89
+0.07% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Pima County, AZ | 714 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 430 |
| Pinal County, AZ | 72 |
| San Diego County, CA | 72 |
| El Paso County, CO | 63 |
| El Paso County, TX | 61 |
Who lives in Sierra Vista
- Median age
- 43
- Bachelor's+
- 27.7%
- Owner-occupancy
- 70.5%
- Vacancy rate
- 14.9%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 41.2%
- Median household income
- $58,970
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.