Fairbanks, AK
The numbers that matter most
What an investor checks first when sizing up a new metro — affordability ratio, rent vs income, cap rate proxy, and where the market is moving. Each metric shown vs. state and national medians for instant context.
moderate
Price to income
3.33×
The single most-cited 'is this market still cheap' check. Below 3× and you're in an affordability tailwind.
- vs Alaska
- 3.54×-0.20
- vs U.S.
- 3.43×-0.10
Benchmark
ACS median home value ÷ median HHI
comfortable
Rent to income
23.7%
What share of a typical household's income goes to rent. Below 30% means tenants can absorb modest rent increases.
- vs Alaska
- 22.1%
- vs U.S.
- 23.3%
Benchmark
(HUD FMR 2BR × 12) ÷ median HHI
deal-by-deal
Cap rate proxy
4.63%
Rough first-pass yield assuming a 35% expense ratio. Not an underwriting number — a 'is this even worth modeling' filter.
- vs Alaska
- 4.09%+0.54
- vs U.S.
- 4.35%+0.28
Benchmark
(FMR 2BR × 12 × 0.65) ÷ ACS median home value
shrinking
Net migration
-0.32%
Forward-looking demand signal. Positive net migration drives rent growth and absorbs new supply.
- vs Alaska
- -0.20%
- vs U.S.
- 0.03%
Benchmark
IRS net migration ÷ population
tight
Permit pipeline
0.21
permits per 1,000 residents
Forward-supply indicator. Above ~5 means the metro is building meaningfully relative to its size; below 2 means supply is tight.
- vs Alaska
- 0.60
- vs U.S.
- 3.52
Benchmark
Census BPS permits TTM ÷ population × 1,000
softening
Unemployment
4.4%
Tighter unemployment means higher wages, more rental demand, lower vacancy.
- vs Alaska
- 4.4%
- vs U.S.
- 3.9%
Benchmark
BLS LAUS, latest month
Where prices are and where they've been
5-year price appreciation
+35.6%
homeValues.yearOverYear
+2.8%
Median home value
$282,500
The rent ladder
| Bedroom | Monthly | Annual | % of median HHI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 BR | $1,277 | $15,324 | 18.1% |
| 2 BR | $1,676 | $20,112 | 23.7% |
| 3 BR | $2,331 | $27,972 | 33.0% |
Labor market direction
Unemployment
4.4%
Median household income
$84,722
What's being built
Total TTM
20
+400.0% YoY
Single-family
9
2–4 unit
6
5+ unit
5
All 1 counties, ranked by population
| County | Population | Home value | Median HHI | Permits TTM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star Borough | 96,299 | $282,500 | $84,722 | 20 | +400.0% |
Similar metros nationally
| Metro | Pop | Med HHI | P/I | Cap proxy | HPI 5y | Permits/1k | Unemp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★Fairbanks | 96,299 | $84,722 | 3.33× | 4.63% | +35.6% | 0.21 | 4.4% |
| Cheyenne, WY | 100,316 | $77,884 | — | — | +39.9% | — | 3.8% |
| Gettysburg, PA | 104,604 | $81,071 | — | — | +43.6% | — | 3.0% |
| Corvallis, OR | 95,615 | $76,011 | — | — | +42.1% | — | 4.4% |
| Dubuque, IA | 98,812 | $75,919 | — | — | +47.6% | — | 3.4% |
| Mankato, MN | 103,402 | $74,722 | — | — | +39.9% | — | 3.5% |
Where people are moving in from
Net migration
-312
-0.32% of population
| Origin county | Tax returns |
|---|---|
| Anchorage Municipality, AK | 182 |
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK | 91 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | 82 |
| El Paso County, CO | 59 |
| El Paso County, TX | 58 |
| Bell County, TX | 56 |
Who lives in Fairbanks
- Median age
- 32
- Bachelor's+
- 33.7%
- Owner-occupancy
- 61.7%
- Vacancy rate
- 15.3%
- Rent burdened (30%+)
- 44.8%
- Median household income
- $84,722
This page shows federally sourced data. A full editorial analysis with charts and investment commentary is in progress.